📊 TRENDGEIST TERMINAL
2024-06-01 16:45:32 EST
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GEMINI AI
MARKET DATA
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CPI
3.2%
+0.1%
UNEMPLOYMENT
3.9%
-0.1%
FED RATE
5.25%
+0.25%
GDP
2.1%
+0.3%
PREDICTIONS
47
+3
ACCURACY
92.3%
+1.2%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
LIVE PREDICTIONS
ADVANCED ANALYSIS
US TREASURY YIELDS
LEADERBOARD
COMMUNITY
REAL-TIME ECONOMIC DATA
INDICATOR
CURRENT
CHANGE
TARGET
IMPACT
UPDATED
CPI YoY
3.2%
+0.1%
2.0%
HIGH
14:30
CORE CPI
3.8%
+0.2%
2.0%
HIGH
14:30
UNEMPLOYMENT
3.9%
-0.1%
4.0%
GOOD
08:30
FED FUNDS
5.25%
+0.25%
5.50%
NEUTRAL
14:00
GDP QoQ
2.1%
+0.3%
2.0%
GOOD
Yesterday
PAYROLLS
187K
-23K
180K
GOOD
08:30
RETAIL SALES
0.7%
+0.4%
0.4%
GOOD
Yesterday
HOUSING STARTS
1.34M
-2.1%
1.40M
NEUTRAL
08:30
INDUSTRIAL PROD
0.1%
+0.1%
0.2%
NEUTRAL
09:15
CONSUMER CONF
109.7
-2.3
110.0
NEUTRAL
10:00
ACTIVE PREDICTIONS
CPI INFLATION
Will CPI exceed 3.5% next month?
PREDICTION:
YES
CONFIDENCE:
75%
🤖 AI ANALYSIS
EMPLOYMENT
Jobs added next NFP report?
ESTIMATE:
180K
CONFIDENCE:
65%
🤖 AI ANALYSIS
FED POLICY
Next FOMC rate decision?
DECISION:
HOLD
CONFIDENCE:
90%
🤖 AI ANALYSIS
GDP GROWTH
Q4 GDP growth rate?
FORECAST:
2.3%
CONFIDENCE:
70%
🤖 AI ANALYSIS
MARKET SENTIMENT ANALYSIS
FEAR & GREED INDEX
68
GREED
0-20
EXTREME
FEAR
21-40
FEAR
41-60
NEUTRAL
61-80
GREED
81-100
EXTREME
GREED
VIX
18.4
-2.1
PUT/CALL
0.82
+0.8
MOMENTUM
+5.2%
+1.4
BREADTH
52%
-0.3
SOCIAL & NEWS SENTIMENT
🐦
TWITTER/X
+0.73
VOLUME
847K
BULLISH
68%
TRENDING
#FED #INFLATION
📰
NEWS FLOW
-0.24
ARTICLES
1,247
NEGATIVE
58%
KEYWORDS
RECESSION RISK
OVERALL SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
74% CONFIDENCE
DOMINANT NARRATIVE
FED PAUSE EXPECTATIONS
INFLATION COOLING
INSTITUTIONAL FLOW & OPTIONS
LARGE CAP INFLOW
+$2.4B
+15% vs 5D avg
SMALL CAP OUTFLOW
-$847M
-8% vs 5D avg
OPTIONS FLOW (24H)
CALL VOLUME
2.4M
58%
PUT VOLUME
1.7M
42%
PUT/CALL RATIO
0.71
BULLISH
🏛️ US TREASURY YIELD CURVE ANALYSIS
Real-time Treasury Yields • Inversion Tracking • Recession Indicators
US TREASURY YIELD CURVE
INVERTED
RECESSION PROB:
67%
Last Updated: 2024-06-01 16:30 EST
3M
5.45%
-0.02
6M
5.38%
-0.01
1Y
5.12%
-0.03
2Y
4.85%
-0.05
5Y
4.42%
-0.02
10Y
4.38%
+0.01
30Y
4.52%
+0.03
INVERSION ALERTS
3M-10Y
+107 bps
INVERTED
47 days
2Y-10Y
+47 bps
INVERTED
12 days
5Y-30Y
-10 bps
NORMAL
-
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
LAST NORMAL
MAR 2022
22 months ago
STEEPEST
MAR 2020
2Y-10Y: +282 bps
AVG RECESSION
12-18M
after inversion
FED PIVOT
EXPECTED
Q4 2024
🤖 GENERATE AI YIELD CURVE ANALYSIS
ADVANCED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Comprehensive Inflation & Phillips Curve Analysis
INFLATION TREND ANALYSIS
12-MONTH CPI HISTORY
MONTH
CPI
CORE
MoM
TREND
JUN 2024
3.2%
3.8%
+0.1%
COOLING
MAY 2024
3.1%
3.9%
+0.2%
COOLING
APR 2024
3.3%
4.1%
+0.3%
RISING
MAR 2024
3.6%
4.3%
+0.4%
RISING
FEB 2024
3.8%
4.5%
+0.3%
RISING
JAN 2024
4.1%
4.8%
+0.5%
HOT
TREND INDICATORS
3M AVERAGE
3.2%
-0.6%
6M TREND
DECLINING
-1.2%
FED TARGET
2.0%
+1.2%
FORECAST
2.8%
Q4 2024
COMPONENT BREAKDOWN
HOUSING
33.2%
+1.8%
ENERGY
7.3%
-0.8%
FOOD
13.4%
+0.2%
SERVICES
58.9%
+2.1%
🤖 GENERATE AI INFLATION FORECAST
PHILLIPS CURVE & MACRO ANALYSIS
CURRENT MACRO INDICATORS
UNEMPLOYMENT
3.9%
-0.1%
FULL EMPLOYMENT
CPI INFLATION
3.2%
+0.1%
ABOVE TARGET
GDP GROWTH
2.1%
+0.3%
MODERATE
CORE PCE
2.9%
-0.2%
COOLING
PHILLIPS CURVE DATA (12M)
PERIOD
UNEMPLOY
CPI
RELATIONSHIP
STATUS
JUN 2024
3.9%
3.2%
INVERSE
HOLDING
MAY 2024
4.0%
3.1%
INVERSE
HOLDING
APR 2024
3.8%
3.3%
INVERSE
HOLDING
MAR 2024
3.7%
3.6%
INVERSE
HOLDING
FEB 2024
3.9%
3.8%
WEAK
BREAKING
JAN 2024
4.1%
4.1%
NEUTRAL
UNCLEAR
CORRELATION METRICS
UNEMPLOY vs CPI
-0.73
STRONG INVERSE
GDP vs UNEMPLOY
-0.68
MODERATE INVERSE
GDP vs CPI
+0.42
WEAK POSITIVE
PHILLIPS VALIDITY
78%
MOSTLY HOLDS
THEORY STATUS
📈
PHILLIPS CURVE
HOLDING (78% confidence)
Current data shows inverse relationship between unemployment (3.9%) and inflation (3.2%)
💼
OKUN'S LAW
HOLDING (71% confidence)
GDP growth (2.1%) correlates with falling unemployment (-0.1%)
🤖 GENERATE PHILLIPS CURVE AI ANALYSIS
🏆 GLOBAL FORECASTER LEADERBOARD
Top Economic Predictors • Season 2024 • 2,847 Active Players
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TOTAL TOKENS
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PREDICTIONS
73.2%
AVG ACCURACY
158
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72,445
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49
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247
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8,432
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Fed Pivot Timeline: Are We Seeing Early Signs?
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🔥 FEATURED MARKETS - CLOSING SOON
📊 NEXT CPI INFLATION READING
CLOSES IN:
2d 14h 23m
Will June CPI YoY exceed 3.3%?
YES
2.4x
$23,847
42%
BET YES
NO
1.7x
$32,156
58%
BET NO
TOTAL VOLUME:
$56,003
PARTICIPANTS:
342
CURRENT CPI:
3.2%
🏛️ FOMC RATE DECISION
CLOSES IN:
5h 37m
Next Fed Funds Rate Decision (June FOMC)?
CUT -0.25%
8.2x
$2,847
8%
BET CUT
HOLD 5.25%
1.1x
$78,923
87%
BET HOLD
RAISE +0.25%
18.7x
$1,234
5%
BET RAISE
TOTAL VOLUME:
$83,004
PARTICIPANTS:
523
CURRENT RATE:
5.25%
📈 ALL PREDICTION MARKETS
All Markets
Inflation
Employment
Fed Policy
GDP
Closing Soon
💼 NFP JOBS REPORT
Tomorrow
Jobs added > 200K?
YES (1.8x)
BET
NO (2.1x)
BET
$18,432
📊 Q2 GDP GROWTH
6 weeks
Q2 GDP > 2.5%?
YES (3.2x)
BET
NO (1.4x)
BET
$12,847
📉 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Tomorrow
Unemployment < 3.8%?
YES (2.7x)
BET
NO (1.5x)
BET
$9,234
🛒 RETAIL SALES
1 week
May Retail Sales > 0.5%?
YES (1.9x)
BET
NO (2.0x)
BET
$15,678
🏠 HOUSING STARTS
2 weeks
Housing Starts > 1.4M?
YES (4.1x)
BET
NO (1.3x)
BET
$7,892
🏭 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
10 days
May Industrial Prod > 0.3%?
YES (2.8x)
BET
NO (1.6x)
BET
$11,234
💰 YOUR ACTIVE BETS
CPI > 3.3%
NO
500 tokens
1.7x
+350 tokens
PENDING
Fed Rate Decision
HOLD
1,200 tokens
1.1x
+120 tokens
PENDING
NFP > 200K
YES
300 tokens
1.8x
+240 tokens
PENDING
🎯 PLACE BET
×
CPI Inflation > 3.3%
Betting:
YES
Odds:
2.4x
Bet Amount (Tokens)
100
500
1K
2K
Available:
8,432 tokens
Potential Payout:
240 tokens
Potential Profit:
+140 tokens
📰 BREAKING: Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 5.25% amid cooling inflation signals • Consumer confidence drops to 109.7 as economic uncertainty persists • Labor market shows resilience with unemployment at 3.9% • Retail sales surge 0.7% exceeding expectations • Housing starts decline 2.1% signaling potential slowdown in construction sector • Industrial production edges up 0.1% in latest report
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